Storm Forecast Detects Disturbances in the Atlantic – Will It Become Hurricane Nadine?

This year has been marked by an unprecedented amount of severe storms for the US, so much so that meteorologist Philip Klotzbach has dubbed the Atlantic hurricane season above average. The National Hurricane Center shared a name list of tropical cyclones for this year (2024), which includes Hurricanes Helene, Milton, and Leslie.

Among these three and others is Hurricane Nadine. According to the center’s tropical weather outlook, which shows a graph of a satellite image from October 10, there are two disturbances — the first is located in the Southwestern Atlantic and the second is in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.

However, unlike Hurricanes Milton and Leslie, the chances of the two disturbances developing into cyclones through both 48 hours and seven days are low, for now at least. The first sits at or near 0%, and the second has a 10% probability.

Besides Hurricane Leslie, which is located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and Hurricane Milton in central Florida, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued advisories on disturbances 1 and 2.

Regarding the Southwestern Atlantic disturbance, the NHC reports the occurrence of thunderstorms and showers associated with a gale-force low-pressure system in an area a few miles south of Bermuda, albeit disordered.

“Environmental conditions are no longer conducive for further development while the system moves east-northward, passing to the south of Bermuda today,” states the NHC.

Concerning the Eastern Tropical Atlantic disturbance, there are tropical wave-associated thunderstorms and showers over the west coast of Africa.

Additional information stipulates, “Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.”

Aside from providing information, which is subject to change, about the Atlantic disturbances, the NHC also released a bulletin notice concerning Hurricane Leslie earlier today (October 10).

Unlike Hurricane Milton, Hurricane Leslie is not a threat. Reportedly, it has already peaked in strength, and there have been no coastal warnings or watches placed in effect.

Additionally, the hurricane is currently moving toward the northwest and is expected to weaken over the next few days. There are also no hazards affecting land.

Nonetheless, Hurricane Leslie and Hurricane Milton have contributed to the generation of 127 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity, the latter of which has been causing havoc since making landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County, Florida at 8:30 pm on October 9.

With winds exceeding 120 miles per hour (mph) and torrential rain, the powerful Category 3 storm left a path of devastation, resulting in power outages for more than 1.1 million homes and businesses, particularly in Sarasota, Manatee, and Hardee counties.

In a Facebook post, the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) urged residents to “continue to shelter in place & remain vigilant!”

As Hurricane Milton approached, multiple tornadoes ripped through St. Lucie County, causing severe damage and fatalities. Sheriff Keith Pearson confirmed “multiple fatalities” at the Spanish Lakes Country Club, a senior community near Fort Pierce.

The exact number of deaths remains unknown as search and rescue teams continue to comb through the area. “They are listening for life,” said Pearson, describing efforts to find survivors amid the wreckage.

St. Lucie County has faced extensive destruction. County spokesman Erick Gill said, “We have dozens of homes in St. Lucie County that have been damaged. Some catastrophic damage.”

Statewide, approximately 125 homes were destroyed, mainly in senior mobile home communities, according to FDEM Director Kevin Guthrie. Emergency responders are working around the clock to assist those affected.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis reported that the storm triggered 116 tornado warnings across the state, with 19 confirmed tornado touchdowns, emphasizing the widespread impact of Hurricane Milton.

Meanwhile, according to CNN’s updates on the ongoing catastrophic events of Hurricane Milton, St. Petersburg experienced a rare 1-in-1,000-year rainfall event. Over nine inches of rain fell within three hours as the storm’s heaviest rain band stalled over the Tampa Bay area, surpassing the city’s typical rainfall for three months.

An October 10 advisory from the NWS National Hurricane Center (NWSNHSC) reported a flash flood emergency in parts of west-central Florida, while strong winds continued to affect the east coast.

The advisory also noted that by 1:00 in the morning, Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), St. Petersburg had sustained winds of 48 mph, with gusts up to 79 mph. Orlando recorded winds of 46 mph, gusting to 74 mph, and Cape Canaveral saw sustained winds of 52 mph, with gusts reaching 67 mph.

State and local authorities have launched an extensive emergency response, deploying task forces and rescue teams across affected regions. Sheriff Pearson emphasized, “Our No. 1 goal is life safety,” as rescuers continue to search for those who may be trapped under debris.

The situation remains critical as Hurricane Milton moves inland, weakening slightly but still posing significant threats. Residents are urged to stay informed and follow official guidance as Florida confronts the storm‘s aftermath.